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NCAA Football

2012 season ยท sheet dated Monday, January 07 2013

This sheet holds the events the model rated for NCAA Football on Monday, January 07 2013. Each row carries the modelled probability for the event and the price that was offered against it, and the two remaining columns follow from those figures.

Sheet facts
LeagueNCAA Football
Season2012
Sheet dateMonday, January 07 2013
Events listed2
NCAA Football, 2012 season sheet dated Monday, January 07 2013
No.Event descriptionProbabilityOddsKelly betExpected value
1The total of Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Alabama points will be under 40.0100%1.91 (-110)0.481.91 14-42 Lose -> 0-0.48=-0.47
2Notre Dame Fighting Irish beats Alabama44.19%3.55 (255)0.161.57 14-42 Lose -> -0.47-0.16=-0.63

Reading the columns

Probability is the model's rating for the event named in the row. Odds is the price in decimal form with the American form beside it. Where a Kelly column is present it gives the share of bankroll the Kelly criterion implies at that probability and that price. Expected value follows from the probability and the price together. A rating is a rating, not an outcome, and a sheet describes one date only.

NCAA Football sheets by season

  1. 2010 season Monday, January 10 2011
  2. 2011 season Saturday, September 10 2011
  3. 2012 season Monday, January 07 2013
  4. 2013 season Saturday, November 09 2013
  5. 2014 season Monday, January 12 2015
  6. 2015 season Monday, January 11 2016

Source

NCAA Football season sheet, Monday, January 07 2013, published on this site at /main/main/042012000/.