--- title: "Model sheets for six leagues, 2009 to 2015" url: https://jgsbws.com/ description: "Dated probability sheets for the NFL, NBA, NCAA Football, NCAA Basketball, NHL and Major League Baseball, listing modelled probability, odds, Kelly stake and expected." --- # Model sheets for six leagues, 2009 to 2015 Latest sheet ยท Monday, March 07 2016 ## National Hockey League Each sheet lists the events the model rated for a single league on a single date. A row gives the event, the modelled probability, the price offered in decimal and American form, the Kelly stake as a share of bankroll, and the expected value that follows from the first two figures. The NHL sheet below is the most recent in the ledger and carries 6 rated events. *Sheet facts* | League | National Hockey League | |---|---| | Season | 2015 | | Sheet date | Monday, March 07 2016 | | Events listed | 6 | ## Recent dispatches [01**How Casino House Edges Work and Questions to Ask**Sep 14, 2026](https://jgsbws.com/how-casino-game-house-edges-work-questions-to-ask/) [02**Top 4 Alternatives of Sweeptastic**Aug 23, 2026](https://jgsbws.com/top-4-alternatives-of-sweeptastic/) [03**The 10 Best Sweepstakes Casinos for Loyalty Program**Aug 22, 2026](https://jgsbws.com/the-10-best-sweepstakes-casinos-for-loyalty-program/) [04**Top 7 Sweepstakes Casinos for US Players**Aug 17, 2026](https://jgsbws.com/top-7-sweepstakes-casinos-for-us-players/) [05**US Players: What to Look for in a Sweepstakes Casino**Aug 17, 2026](https://jgsbws.com/us-players-what-to-look-for-in-a-sweepstakes-casino/) [06**Why Is SweepsPulse the Best for Poker?**Aug 16, 2026](https://jgsbws.com/why-is-sweepspulse-the-best-for-poker/) [07**Top 3 Alternatives of Playtech for Payment Management**Aug 14, 2026](https://jgsbws.com/top-3-alternatives-of-playtech-for-payment-management/) [08**Why Is SweepsPulse the Best for Sweeps Coins Value?**Aug 14, 2026](https://jgsbws.com/why-is-sweepspulse-the-best-for-sweeps-coins-value/) More [09**Daily Free Coins: What to Look for in a Sweepstakes Casino**Aug 08, 2026](https://jgsbws.com/daily-free-coins-what-to-look-for-in-a-sweepstakes-casino/) [10**Who's the Best for Comprehensive Player Management Systems: SOFTSWISS vs Kanggiten**Aug 07, 2026](https://jgsbws.com/who-s-the-best-for-comprehensive-player-management-systems-softswiss-vs-kanggiten/) [11**Who's the Best for Sportsbook Software: NuxGame vs Kanggiten**Aug 06, 2026](https://jgsbws.com/who-s-the-best-for-sportsbook-software-nuxgame-vs-kanggiten/) [12**Best Sweepstakes Casinos for Legit Payouts (2026)**Aug 02, 2026](https://jgsbws.com/best-sweepstakes-casinos-for-legit-payouts-2026/) [13**EveryMatrix vs Kanggiten for Game Aggregation Services**Jul 30, 2026](https://jgsbws.com/everymatrix-vs-kanggiten-for-game-aggregation-services/) [14**Meta Business Partner Integration Explained for Ecommerce Stores**Jul 26, 2026](https://jgsbws.com/meta-business-partner-integration-explained-for-ecommerce-stores/) ## Research ledger Every sheet published, newest first, divided by the year the sheet was dated. 2016 2016-03-07 [National Hockey League](https://jgsbws.com/main/main/272015000/) 2015 season 6 rated events on this sheet 2016-01-24 [National Football League](https://jgsbws.com/main/main/012015000/) 2015 season 5 rated events on this sheet 2016-01-19 [National Basketball Association](https://jgsbws.com/main/main/022015000/) 2015 season 3 rated events on this sheet 2016-01-11 [NCAA Football](https://jgsbws.com/main/main/042015000/) 2015 season 1 rated event on this sheet 2015 2015-10-19 [Major League Baseball](https://jgsbws.com/main/main/282015000/) 2015 season No opinion recorded on this sheet 2015-02-01 [National Football League](https://jgsbws.com/main/main/012014000/) 2014 season 1 rated event on this sheet 2015-01-20 [National Basketball Association](https://jgsbws.com/main/main/022014000/) 2014 season 2 rated events on this sheet 2015-01-20 [National Hockey League](https://jgsbws.com/main/main/272014000/) 2014 season 8 rated events on this sheet 2015-01-19 [NCAA Basketball](https://jgsbws.com/main/main/052014000/) 2014 season No opinion recorded on this sheet 2015-01-12 [NCAA Football](https://jgsbws.com/main/main/042014000/) 2014 season 2 rated events on this sheet 2014 2014-10-29 [Major League Baseball](https://jgsbws.com/main/main/282014000/) 2014 season No opinion recorded on this sheet 2014-04-01 [NCAA Basketball](https://jgsbws.com/main/main/052013000/) 2013 season No opinion recorded on this sheet 2014-03-29 [National Basketball Association](https://jgsbws.com/main/main/022013000/) 2013 season 10 rated events on this sheet 2013 2013-11-11 [National Football League](https://jgsbws.com/main/main/012013000/) 2013 season No opinion recorded on this sheet 2013-11-09 [NCAA Football](https://jgsbws.com/main/main/042013000/) 2013 season 25 rated events on this sheet 2013-09-17 [Major League Baseball](https://jgsbws.com/main/main/282013000/) 2013 season 13 rated events on this sheet 2013-06-24 [National Hockey League](https://jgsbws.com/main/main/272012000/) 2012 season 2 rated events on this sheet 2013-03-22 [NCAA Basketball](https://jgsbws.com/main/main/052012000/) 2012 season 7 rated events on this sheet 2013-03-19 [National Basketball Association](https://jgsbws.com/main/main/022012000/) 2012 season 5 rated events on this sheet 2013-03-18 [National Hockey League](https://jgsbws.com/main/main/272013000/) 2013 season 8 rated events on this sheet 2013-02-03 [National Football League](https://jgsbws.com/main/main/012012000/) 2012 season 1 rated event on this sheet 2013-01-07 [NCAA Football](https://jgsbws.com/main/main/042012000/) 2012 season 2 rated events on this sheet 2012 2012-10-28 [Major League Baseball](https://jgsbws.com/main/main/282012000/) 2012 season 3 rated events on this sheet 2011 2011-12-10 [National Hockey League](https://jgsbws.com/main/main/272011000/) 2011 season 13 rated events on this sheet 2011-09-12 [National Football League](https://jgsbws.com/main/main/012011000/) 2011 season 5 rated events on this sheet 2011-09-10 [NCAA Football](https://jgsbws.com/main/main/042011000/) 2011 season 25 rated events on this sheet 2011-06-19 [Major League Baseball](https://jgsbws.com/main/main/282011000/) 2011 season 16 rated events on this sheet 2011-01-10 [NCAA Football](https://jgsbws.com/main/main/042010000/) 2010 season 2 rated events on this sheet 2010 2010-12-26 [National Football League](https://jgsbws.com/main/main/012010000/) 2010 season 20 rated events on this sheet 2010-12-25 [National Basketball Association](https://jgsbws.com/main/main/022010000/) 2010 season 10 rated events on this sheet 2010-12-24 [NCAA Basketball](https://jgsbws.com/main/main/052010000/) 2010 season 9 rated events on this sheet 2010-12-23 [National Hockey League](https://jgsbws.com/main/main/272010000/) 2010 season 17 rated events on this sheet 2010-11-01 [Major League Baseball](https://jgsbws.com/main/main/282010000/) 2010 season No opinion recorded on this sheet 2010-06-17 [National Basketball Association](https://jgsbws.com/main/main/022009000/) 2009 season 2 rated events on this sheet ## Coverage by league ### Coverage at a glance **Leagues covered**: 6 **Sheets published**: 34 **Earliest sheet**: 17 June 2010 **Latest sheet**: 07 March 2016 Source: the dated league pages under /main/main/ on this site. ### National Football League - [2010 season](https://jgsbws.com/main/main/012010000/)Sunday, December 26 2010 - [2011 season](https://jgsbws.com/main/main/012011000/)Monday, September 12 2011 - [2012 season](https://jgsbws.com/main/main/012012000/)Sunday, February 03 2013 - [2013 season](https://jgsbws.com/main/main/012013000/)Monday, November 11 2013 - [2014 season](https://jgsbws.com/main/main/012014000/)Sunday, February 01 2015 - [2015 season](https://jgsbws.com/main/main/012015000/)Sunday, January 24 2016 ### National Basketball Association - [2009 season](https://jgsbws.com/main/main/022009000/)Thursday, June 17 2010 - [2010 season](https://jgsbws.com/main/main/022010000/)Saturday, December 25 2010 - [2012 season](https://jgsbws.com/main/main/022012000/)Tuesday, March 19 2013 - [2013 season](https://jgsbws.com/main/main/022013000/)Saturday, March 29 2014 - [2014 season](https://jgsbws.com/main/main/022014000/)Tuesday, January 20 2015 - [2015 season](https://jgsbws.com/main/main/022015000/)Tuesday, January 19 2016 ### NCAA Football - [2010 season](https://jgsbws.com/main/main/042010000/)Monday, January 10 2011 - [2011 season](https://jgsbws.com/main/main/042011000/)Saturday, September 10 2011 - [2012 season](https://jgsbws.com/main/main/042012000/)Monday, January 07 2013 - [2013 season](https://jgsbws.com/main/main/042013000/)Saturday, November 09 2013 - [2014 season](https://jgsbws.com/main/main/042014000/)Monday, January 12 2015 - [2015 season](https://jgsbws.com/main/main/042015000/)Monday, January 11 2016 ### NCAA Basketball - [2010 season](https://jgsbws.com/main/main/052010000/)Friday, December 24 2010 - [2012 season](https://jgsbws.com/main/main/052012000/)Friday, March 22 2013 - [2013 season](https://jgsbws.com/main/main/052013000/)Tuesday, April 01 2014 - [2014 season](https://jgsbws.com/main/main/052014000/)Monday, January 19 2015 ### National Hockey League - [2010 season](https://jgsbws.com/main/main/272010000/)Thursday, December 23 2010 - [2011 season](https://jgsbws.com/main/main/272011000/)Saturday, December 10 2011 - [2012 season](https://jgsbws.com/main/main/272012000/)Monday, June 24 2013 - [2013 season](https://jgsbws.com/main/main/272013000/)Monday, March 18 2013 - [2014 season](https://jgsbws.com/main/main/272014000/)Tuesday, January 20 2015 - [2015 season](https://jgsbws.com/main/main/272015000/)Monday, March 07 2016 ### Major League Baseball - [2010 season](https://jgsbws.com/main/main/282010000/)Monday, November 01 2010 - [2011 season](https://jgsbws.com/main/main/282011000/)Sunday, June 19 2011 - [2012 season](https://jgsbws.com/main/main/282012000/)Sunday, October 28 2012 - [2013 season](https://jgsbws.com/main/main/282013000/)Tuesday, September 17 2013 - [2014 season](https://jgsbws.com/main/main/282014000/)Wednesday, October 29 2014 - [2015 season](https://jgsbws.com/main/main/282015000/)Monday, October 19 2015 ## How the sheets are made The model behind these sheets has been written and rewritten by one author since the 1980s, beginning as a QBASIC program and moving in turn to Visual Basic, to Java and then to Ruby. It has been studied and revised continuously across that span. Joe Guy is a theoretical member of the betting public. He backs what the model tells him to back, he never stakes more than a set share of his bankroll on any one sport, usually a tenth, and he makes one bet per sport per day. Those three habits are the whole of the premise the sheets are written against. ### Reading the columns - **Probability** is the model's rating for the event described in the row. - **Odds** is the price for that event in decimal form with the American form beside it. - **Kelly bet** is the share of bankroll the Kelly criterion implies at that probability and that price. - **Expected value** is the return implied by the probability and the price together. ## Sources Every figure on this site comes from the site's own dated league pages, one sheet per league per date, published under /main/main/. The ledger spans the 2009 season through the 2015 season across six leagues. Open the full sheet list